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This post originally appeared at RobertReich. Il numero dei disoccupati nel mondo raggiungerà i milioni quest'anno: A stimarlo, secondo quanto riferisce il settimanale tedesco 'Der Spiegel', è l'Ilo, l'Organizzazione internazionale del Lavoro che presenterà i dati a Davos in occasione del World Economic Forum.

Sono 74,8 milioni i disoccupati tra i 15 e i 24 anni nel mondo: The biggest question right now on Planet Washington is whether the congressional supercommittee will reach an agreement.

Agreement or not, Washington is on the road to making budget cuts that will slow the economy, increase unemployment, and impose additional hardship on millions of Americans. The real question is how to stop this austerity train wreck, and substitute the following. No cuts before jobs are back — until unemployment is down to 5 percent. Until then, the economy needs a boost, not a cut. Make the boost big enough. It would create fewer than 2 million jobs. To pay for this, raise taxes on the super-rich.

Never before has so much income and wealth been concentrated at the very top, and taxes on the top so low. Go back to the 70 percent marginal tax we had before And include more tax brackets at the top.

And tax all sources of income at the same rate, including capital gains. Cut the budget where the real bloat is. Military spending and corporate welfare. Do you hear me, Washington?

Do these four things and restore jobs and prosperity. What may be less well-recognized is the extent to which specific sectors are already changing in a consequential and permanent manner. This is particularly true for global finance where volatility has increased, liquidity is evaporating, and the role of government is pronounced but inconsistent.

This is a sector where the functioning of markets is changing, along with the outlook for institutions. The implications are relevant for both economic growth and jobs. The recent volatility in financial markets — be it the dizzying swings in equities around the world or the fragmentation of European sovereign bonds — far exceeds what is warranted by the ongoing global re-alignments. We are also seeing the impact of a consequential shift in underlying liquidity conditions — or the oil that lubricates the flow of the credit and the related ability of savers and borrowers to find each other and interact efficiently.

Facing a range of internal and external pressures, banks seem to be limiting the amount of capital that they devote to market making. Combine this with the natural inclination of many market participants to retreat to the sidelines when volatility and uncertainty increase, and what you get is a disruptive combination of higher transaction costs, reduced trading volumes, and abrupt moves in valuations. We are also witnessing a loss of trust in instruments that many market participants — from corporations to individual investors and institutional ones — use to manage their balance sheet risks.

By withholding new credit, private creditors are forcing certain banks to de-lever — a process that is amplified by the sharp decline in bank stocks and the accompanying erosion in capital cushions. The result of all this is a further, across-the-board shrinkage in the balance sheet of the western banking system. This is led by Europe where some institutions e. After the debacle of the global financial crisis, governments also want their banks to be better capitalized and more disciplined.

And while implementation has been both far from consistent and less than fully effective, the intention is clear: Much tighter guard rails and better enforcement to preclude any repeat of the wild west experience of over-leverage, bad lending practices, and inappropriate compensation approaches.

The influence of central banks and governments are also being felt in other ways that impact the functioning and efficiency of markets.

Some of the implications are visible and largely knowable while others, by their very nature, are unprecedented and therefore less predictable. The goal has been to reduce the probability of prolonged recessions and severe financial dislocations. In doing so, central banks have gone well beyond their prudential supervisory and regulatory roles. They have become important direct participants in markets — essentially using their printing presses to buy selective securities, and doing so not on the basis of the usual commercial criteria that anchor the normal functioning of markets.

Market predictability is also being impacted by the erosion in the standing of sovereign risk in the western world. The cause is the twin problem of way too little economic growth and way too much debt. All this will translate into a very different financial landscape.

The change will be most pronounced for banks. Look for western banks to be less complex, less global, somewhat less inter-connected and, therefore, less systemic. With some banks teetering on the edge, certain European governments e.

Also, with the western banking system shrinking in scope and scale, look for new credit pipes to be built around those that are now clogged. With the aim of supporting growth and jobs, particularly in longer-term investments such as infrastructure, some of these pipes will be directed or enabled by governments.

Have no doubt, the financial landscape is rapidly evolving. Some of the changes are deliberately designed and implemented. Others are being imposed by the quickly changing reality on the ground. The ultimate destination is a smaller and safer financial services sector.

When we get there, a better balance will be struck between private gains and the common good. Banks will be in a better position to serve the real economy without exposing it to catastrophic risk and harmful abuses.

The next few months will shed light on the extent to which governments and, to a lesser extent, business leaders are able to properly orchestrate the process.

The more they fall short, the less growth and fewer jobs there will be. Especially given the current political mood in Washington concerning new federal expenditures, this focus will necessarily require the Obama administration to seriously rethink its approach to trade, particularly toward China.

There are many economic imperatives behind this conclusion. At the same time, the ethical imperative for again having a robust manufacturing sector is central to our national well-being. Yet just as the economic imperatives are often overlooked, so is the ethical imperative very often dismissed out of insensitivity or otherwise put aside in deference to our culture of greed.

The proof of this conclusion is found in history, starting with the forty years leading up to the Second World War, when the percent of U. These seventy years of robust manufacturing were -- it's no coincidence -- generally robust years for the middle class as well, hallmarked by wide-scale new home construction and new car ownership, quality public school education for the nation's youth, and fair salaries with relatively little income inequality.

Beginning in the early s, however, five Presidents in a row have actively in some cases or passively in others presided over a dramatic decline in the number of workers in our manufacturing sector. Today only nine out of every hundred American workers earn their living in manufacturing.

America's trade imbalance alone is now so great that, as the economist Peter Morici of the University of Maryland has calculated, the U. As Morici has written , so long as imports to the U. Americans " must consume much more than the incomes they earn producing goods and services, otherwise the demand for what they make is inadequate to clear the shelves, inventories pile up, layoffs result, and the economy goes into recession.

America alone does not. And among these nineteen countries, Germany, Japan and China most stand out for comparison with the U. The result of all of this, as David Leonhardt of the New York Times has written , is that the German economy consistently grew faster than ours since the middle of the last decade and it recovered much more quickly from the financial crisis of In contrast with Germany's rules-based industrial policy, much has been written about how China has gained unfair trade advantages through its lack of meaningful environmental and labor standards, currency manipulation and other subsidies, highly restrictive limitations on foreign goods purchases, and demands that countries seeking to do business in China first make massive transfers to it of their intellectual property.

These actions and practices of China under its industrial policy -- albeit very often illegal -- have, nonetheless, been highly effective: China just a year ago passed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy and passed Germany to become the world's biggest exporter, and as early as , it will likely pass the U.

In just the years between and , China added 11 million manufacturing jobs to its rolls, which are as many manufacturing jobs as we now have left in total in America. Even the Obama administration, despite countless promises to the contrary during the '08 campaign, quickly fell into the "a job is a job" fallacy while at the same time it's failed to hold China responsible for its illegal trade practices.

Just six months after the Inauguration, on June 19, , Larry Summers, the administration's Director of the National Economic Council, said that to make up for the millions of offshored manufacturing jobs, all we need to do as a nation is focus on exporting " computer software, movies, university degrees and management consulting and legal services.

And as for its failure to move against China, the Obama administration, despite professing to recognize the need to address unbalanced trade and rebuild U. And then the administration wonders why workers and voters in towns like Flint, Dayton, Wichita and Buffalo are having conniption fits. We suffer in the magnitude of our trade deficit, the progressiveness of our average wage, the extent of income inequality, the amount of our federal indebtedness, and the pressures put on our nation's state and municipal budgets.

Exceeded only by the responsibility to defend itself, a nation must seek to create an economic environment that give its workers employment opportunities that provide fair compensation, safe working conditions and an absence of discrimination and are compatible with their skills and capabilities. As for safe working conditions, we should be pleased where we are generally, excepting only in coal mining. And as for non-discrimination in hiring, going all the way back to the Kennedy-Johnson era we can generally be proud of what we've accomplished as a nation, excepting only fair employment of the LGBT community.

Where I would contend we are truly falling down in major way on a nation-wide level is in not better reacting to the other form of discrimination plaguing the American workforce, which is the decades-long elimination of millions of manufacturing jobs that would better meet the skills and capabilities of workers who have instead been shoved into low-skill, low-reward service jobs. When the last light in the plant was shut off, which is literally how the film ended, thousands of highly-skilled manufacturing jobs were eliminated -- jobs which had provided fair wages and benefits, matched well individual skills with job requirements, and instilled a sense of camaraderie throughout the community.

Individual dignity and national interest align on the desire to reduce economic inequality and in matching education and skill sets to jobs. And communities and a nation are in trouble when people feel they are being left behind. There are many proven predictors of performance in all occupations. For example, we know that the aptitude required to be successful as a professional or technical worker is much higher on average than the aptitude of the average unskilled worker.

We also know that the aptitude required to be a successful skilled manufacturing worker or craftsman is much higher on average than the aptitude of the average semi-skilled or standard service worker. While one needs to be extremely sensitive and careful when trying to correlate jobs with aptitude, three conclusions can be drawn: America's economy, social cohesion and dignity, and Americans' optimism -- in short, America's traditional strength -- all rest on a thriving middle class which in turn rests on a thriving manufacturing sector.

We have benignly and actively neglected this sector for far too long, and regardless of who wins the election, we need to focus on these manufacturing, trade and education-related issues if we want to have a healthy, vibrant, ethically sound nation moving forward.

Today millions of American workers are suffering otherwise. Tomorrow, the very idea of America will suffer. Leo Hindery , Jr. The Myths of Offshoring. The Imperative of Manufacturing. For fully two decades, the American people have been fed the canard that the offshoring of literally millions of American manufacturing jobs is an acceptable price to pay for lower cost imported consumer goods.

Yet indisputably, we now know from work done by the non-partisan Center for Economic and Policy Research and others, especially including Lori Wallach and Michael Mandel, that for the vast majority of Americans, the gains in lower prices from trade are being outweighed by wage losses - meaning net losses for most American workers.

We also know from ongoing work by Mandel that shifting production overseas has inflicted far worse damage on the U. Because of persistent flaws in the data fed us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the growth of domestic manufacturing is substantially overstated which means that productivity gains and overall economic growth have been overstated as well.

Offshoring to low-cost countries is in fact creating reported gains in GDP that don't correspond to any actual domestic production. This "phantom GDP" helps explain why U. All of this seems esoteric until you reflect on the fact that we are tearing the core out of our economy and, in my opinion, the very heart and soul out of society as those in big business and their supporters in Congress try to justify.

The insidiousness of offshoring is three-fold. Yet the recent pronouncements from the administration about revitalizing American manufacturing fail to address them. First , from its high point in the summer of , employment in manufacturing has fallen from And as a percent of GDP, manufacturing is now just Today's meager GDP figure is down dramatically from And without such targets in place, the U.

Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable -- Mr. Obama's new "BFFs" -- and others take the position that because the number of manufacturing workers in the U. After all, we've seen General Electric bring back to the U.

Second , offshoring is always described by its proponents as nothing more than moving jobs to 'lower-cost' countries, in our case most obviously to China. Yet, the administration has to date specifically excluded trade reform from its 'boosting manufacturing' initiatives.

Third , we have finally come to appreciate that American corporations committed to offshoring have almost universally been providing their foreign suppliers and overseas subsidiaries with massive amounts of business knowledge, management practices, training and other intangible exports. Almost none of this activity is picked up in the BLS's shoddy and, I would argue, irresponsible data gathering, but it is the proverbial second shoe to drop. And a very big shoe it is.

Cohan goes on to note that "if China follows Taiwan's footsteps [in semiconductors], its aircraft industry should surpass the US's in a much shorter time". President Obama, according to the New York Times , has started making the case that the United States has moved past economic crisis mode and is entering "a new phase of our recovery," which demands an emphasis on job creation. The specific vehicle that Mr. All of this is consistent with the President's expressed 'transition' from economic recovery to job creation.

First , its mandate has to unequivocally include trade reform, because job creation and trade reform -- especially our trade with China -- are inextricably linked. In this regard, Mr. Obama has made a curious choice to be chair of this new Council, as few multinational corporations have benefited more from our current flawed definition of globalization -- or from China's unfair trade practices -- than has Mr.

The Obama administration's track record on avoiding conflicts of interest in economic policy areas already has been called into question by the President's choice of James McNerney of the Boeing Company to head his Export Council. Boeing, like GE, is completely joined at China's economic hip, while planning every day to ship ever more U.

Yet in his January 21st guest column in the Washington Post Mr. Immelt made clear his support of the recently concluded South Korea FTA, an FTA which indisputably failed to put the interests of American workers ahead of the interests of large global corporations, which has to be the primary standard for any FTA.

Third , the Council on Jobs and Competiveness must, as its name implies, take the strongest possible exception to further unwarranted offshoring of American jobs. Yet GE's own history on this issue is checkered at best, especially in its dealings with China. Also, its ongoing significant financial support of the U. Chamber of Commerce -- the 'big dog' when it comes to supporting offshoring -- is certainly not an encouraging sign of resoluteness in the future. Because the President has made job creation the focus of the next two years, let me close with some observations on what happens if as a nation we fail in this task.

In an article written last Friday by Matt Bai of the New York Times , he concluded that Mitt Romney's speech that day to the Conservative Political Action Conference which called today's job fairs and unemployment lines "President Obama's Hoovervilles" was misplaced. Specifically, said Bai, "It would be hard to construct a compelling case, based on any fair reading of political and economic history, for linking Mr.

Obama's term thus far to that of the most maligned president of the last century. However, as Rick Sloan, who is the Machinists Union's communications director, has noted, while Romney's analogy may not be exactly spot on, the results of the November 2 elections offer us a preview of the campaign if real unemployment in America is not down dramatically from today's dismal levels of Thirty percent of the turnout last November came from jobless households, and nationally this vote split only 50 to 46 for Democrats, which, Mr.

Bai, is not exactly an FDR-style landslide a la The world of hurt that the millions of jobless in America have endured will not be easily forgotten, especially if the most recent solution put forward on their behalf -- i. Isn't a 'jobless recovery' as preposterous as a fetus-less pregnancy? We've got a bloody pile-up at the intersection of Wall Street and Main Street, where reality collides with such corporate conceits.

And it's the workers who wind up on life support, while the suits speed away from the wreckage undented and undaunted.

Back to the bat cave, to plot the next leveraged buyout! The Stella D'Oro Strike , premiering on HBO2 tonight at 8pm, tells the story of a beloved Bronx bakery, founded by Italian immigrants in , that now lies shuttered, like so many factories all over America. The saga of how the company went from a thriving family-owned enterprise to a gutted equity fund acquisition is a success story only if you're rooting for our modern day robber barons. For the dwindling middle class and the unwashed masses, it's an American tragedy that's being repeated all over the country.

No Contract No Cookies puts a poignant face -- or faces, to be precise -- on the massacre of manufacturing jobs that CEOs routinely commit in the name of prosperity. At the Stella D'Oro factory, folks from 22 different countries worked convivially alongside New York natives and gained a foothold in the American middle class, only to be kicked off the ladder when Brynwood Partners, a private equity fund, bought the company. Brynwood claimed, as the New York Times' Jennifer 8.

Filmmakers Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill documented the month strike that ensued, capturing the camaraderie of the close-knit workers who hailed from wildly different backgrounds but shared the belief that their solid work ethic would lay the foundation for a decent future for themselves and their families, as it would have in the past.

But with our economy now founded on fictitious, bubble-based fortunes and sleazy sleights of hand, those who actually make -- or in this case, bake -- anything, are expected to accept stagnating or even declining wages even while the affluent few do better than ever.

Middle class workers who banked on promised pensions and health care are now portrayed as pariahs and parasites , while the fraudsters who crashed our economy continue to call all the shots, as Frank Rich laments in his scathing New York debut. Brynwood refused to provide the union with financial statements to document its claims that the cuts were needed, and was found guilty of bargaining in bad faith.

A federal judge ruled that the workers were entitled to their jobs, their pay, and their benefits, and ordered Brynwood to reinstate the workers.

So, the company invited the workers back and promptly announced that it would close the factory. Stella D'Oro was sold to a company named Lance, which shut the factory and moved operations to a non-union factory in Ohio where labor's a lot cheaper. Most of the former Stella D'Oro workers remain unemployed; some found a job at another bakery, only to be laid off again a few months later.

When will we stop lionizing business and demonizing labor? GOP hopefuls like Mitt Romney and Herman Cain tout their supposed business acumen as proof that they've got the right stuff to steer our economy out of the ditch.

But, honestly, if you've built your financial empire by buying up companies and then driving the workers who are the backbone of those companies right into that ditch, i.

And a country where business owners can't figure out how to compensate themselves and their shareholders without screwing their workers is, simply, a country that doesn't work. Follow Kerry Trueman on Twitter: America's 14 million unemployed aren't competing just with each other. They must also contend with 8. When consumer demand picks up, companies will likely boost the hours of their part-timers before they add jobs, economists say. It means they have room to expand without hiring.

And the unemployed will face another source of competition once the economy improves: Once they start looking again, they'll be classified as unemployed.

And the unemployment rate could rise. Intensified competition for jobs means unemployment could exceed its historic norm of 5 percent to 6 percent for several more years.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate to exceed 8 percent until The White House predicts it will average 9 percent next year, when President Barack Obama runs for re-election. The jobs crisis has led Obama to schedule a major speech Thursday night to propose steps to stimulate hiring. Republican presidential candidates will likely confront the issue in a debate the night before. The back-to-back events will come days after the government said employers added zero net jobs in August.

The monthly jobs report, arriving three days before Labor Day, was the weakest since September Combined, the 14 million officially unemployed; the "underemployed" part-timers who want full-time work; and "discouraged" people who have stopped looking make up The Labor Department compiles the figure to assess how many people want full-time work and can't find it — a number the unemployment rate alone doesn't capture. In a healthy economy, this broader measure of unemployment stays below 10 percent.

Since the Great Recession officially ended more than two years ago, the rate has been 15 percent or more. The proportion of the work force made up of the frustrated part-timers has risen faster than unemployment has since the recession began in December That's because many companies slashed workers' hours after the recession hit.

If they restored all those lost hours to their existing staff, they'd add enough hours to equal about , full-time jobs, according to calculations by Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute. No one expects every company to delay hiring until every part-timer is working full time.

But economists expect job growth to stay weak for two or three more years in part because of how many frustrated part-timers want to work full time. And because employers are still reluctant to increase hours for part-timers, "hiring is really a long way off," says Christine Riordan, a policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

In August, employees of private companies worked fewer hours than in July. Some groups are disproportionately represented among the broader category of unemployment that includes underemployed and discouraged workers. More than 26 percent of African Americans, for example, and nearly 22 percent of Hispanics are in this category. The figure for whites is less than 15 percent.

Women are more likely than men to be in this group. Among the Americans frustrated with part-time work is Ryan McGrath, In October, he returned from managing a hotel project in Uruguay. He's been unable to find full-time work. So he's been freelancing as a website designer for small businesses in the Chicago area. Parte II Inadeguatezza della struttura pubblica. Lo slogan Stato leggero che auspica un futuro tutto privato, gestito dal mercato, è la conseguenza di una logica sorpassata, perché in futuro ci attenderà uno Stato pesante a cui farà capo il ruolo principale e strategico della struttura produttiva.

Analogamente si dovrà procedere per strutture urbanistiche, ferrovie, aeroporti, ricerca, ecc. A riprova possiamo ricordare che là dove esiste, per motivi storici come in Germania, un migliore livello di gestione pubblica abbiamo i migliori risultati economici del panorama internazionale forse più significativi anche di quelli cinesi e lo scarso indebitamento del paese si spiega come conseguenza della maggiore efficienza pubblica.

In altri settori, più semplici e più collaudati, gli Stati nazionali hanno messo in atto contromisure , per esempio per contrastare la mancanza di vincoli produttivi propri di zone esterne al loro territorio: Diventa emblematico il fallimento truffaldino di Madoff , uno dei grandi finanzieri americani, che per molti anni ha distribuito come interesse il capitale dei fondi raccolti dagli ignari risparmiatori.

La crisi ha rivelato la scomparsa del capitale e la vanificazione dei risparmi. Non siamo in presenza di una previsione errata che produce il fallimento meccanismo selettivo del capitalismo , ma della mancanza di regole e di controllo che legittima l'abuso. Le stime quantitative del fenomeno, data la nebulosità del settore, sono approssimate e devono essere prese solo come ordine di grandezza: Ora nuove valutazioni segnalano che i valori finanziari sono risaliti a 4 volte il Pil mondiale.

In questa situazione gli assurdi stipendi dei banchieri sono solo una conseguenza; se per mancanza di regole accettiamo che moneta falsa venga messa in circolazione non meravigliamoci che i manager pretendano per sé qualche briciola di questo fiume di denaro. Emblematico il fallimento truffaldino di Murdoch , uno dei grandi finanzieri americani, che per molti anni ha distribuito come interesse il capitale dei fondi raccolti dagli ignari risparmiatori.

Pubblichiamo di seguito il secondo di tre interventi di Bruno Musso, armatore e presidente del Gruppo Grendi, sull'attuale crisi economica. Laureato in Economia e Commercio e specializzatosi presso la London School of Economics, è al vertice dell'azienda familiare fondata a Genova nel Con il Gruppo Grendi costruisce nel la prima nave full container italiana e segue in prima persona l'evolversi della portualità nel capoluogo ligure.

Collabora con l'Istituto SiTI per l'elaborazione di un progetto alternativo di sviluppo portuale genovese. Musso è autore di vari articoli e saggi su problemi politico-sociali e del libro Il Porto di Genova - La storia, i privilegi, la politica Celid, Simon Johnson and Peter Boone.

To understand why, first strip away your illusions. Europe's crisis to date is a series of supposedly "decisive" turning points that each turned out to be just another step down a steep hill. Greece's upcoming election on June 17 is another such moment. While the so-called "pro-bailout" forces may prevail in terms of parliamentary seats, some form of new currency will soon flood the streets of Athens.

It is already nearly impossible to save Greek membership in the euro area: In apparent frustration, the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, remarked last week, "As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. Lagarde's empathy is wearing thin and this is unfortunate -- particularly as the Greek failure mostly demonstrates how wrong a single currency is for Europe.

The Greek backlash reflects the enormous pain and difficulty that comes with trying to arrange "internal devaluations" a euphemism for big wage and spending cuts in order to restore competitiveness and repay an excessive debt level.

Faced with five years of recession, more than 20 percent unemployment, further cuts to come, and a stream of failed promises from politicians inside and outside the country, a political backlash seems only natural. With IMF leaders, EC officials, and financial journalists floating the idea of a "Greek exit" from the euro, who can now invest in or sign long-term contracts in Greece?

Greece's economy can only get worse. Some European politicians are now telling us that an orderly exit for Greece is feasible under current conditions, and Greece will be the only nation that leaves.

Greece's exit is simply another step in a chain of events that leads towards a chaotic dissolution of the euro zone. During the next stage of the crisis, Europe's electorate will be rudely awakened to the large financial risks which have been foisted upon them in failed attempts to keep the single currency alive. When Greece quits the euro, its government will default on approximately billion euros of debt to official creditors, and about 27 billion euros owed to the IMF.

More importantly and less known to German taxpayers, Greece will also default on billion euros directly owed to the euro system comprised of the ECB and the 17 national central banks in the euro zone. This includes billion euros provided automatically to Greece through the Target2 payments system -- which handles settlements between central banks for countries using the euro.

As depositors and lenders flee Greek banks, someone needs to finance that capital flight, otherwise Greek banks would fail. This role is taken on by other euro area central banks, which have quietly lent large funds, with the balances reported in the Target2 account.

The vast bulk of this lending is, in practice, done by the Bundesbank since capital flight mostly goes to Germany, although all members of the euro system share the losses if there are defaults. The ECB has always vehemently denied that it has taken an excessive amount of risk despite its increasingly relaxed lending policies. But between Target2 and direct bond purchases alone, the euro system claims on troubled periphery countries are now approximately 1.

This amounts to over percent of the broadly defined capital of the euro system. No responsible bank would claim these sums are minor risks to its capital or to taxpayers.

These claims also amount to 43 percent of German Gross Domestic Product, which is now around 2. With Greece proving that all this financing is deeply risky, the euro system will appear far more fragile and dangerous to taxpayers and investors. Jacek Rostowski, the Polish Finance Minister, recently warned that the calamity of a Greek default is likely to result in a flight from banks and sovereign debt across the periphery, and that -- to avoid a greater calamity -- all remaining member nations need to be provided with unlimited funding for at least 18 months.

Rostowski expresses concern, however, that the ECB is not prepared to provide such a firewall, and no other entity has the capacity, legitimacy, or will to do so. Once it dawns on people that the ECB already has a large amount of credit risk on its books, it seems very unlikely that the ECB would start providing limitless funds to all other governments that face pressure from the bond market.

The Greek trajectory of austerity-backlash-default is likely to be repeated elsewhere -- so why would the Germans want the ECB to double- or quadruple-down by suddenly ratcheting up loans to everyone else? The most likely scenario is that the ECB will reluctantly and haltingly provide funds to other nations -- an on-again, off-again pattern of support -- and that simply won't be enough to stabilize the situation.

Having seen the destruction of a Greek exit, and knowing that both the ECB and German taxpayers will not tolerate unlimited additional losses, investors and depositors will respond by fleeing banks in other peripheral countries and holding off on investment and spending.

Capital flight could last for months, leaving banks in the periphery short of liquidity and forcing them to contract credit -- pushing their economies into deeper recessions and their voters towards anger. Even as the ECB refuses to provide large amounts of visible funding, the automatic mechanics of Europe's payment system will mean the capital flight from Spain and Italy to German banks is transformed into larger and larger de facto loans by the Bundesbank to Banca d'Italia and Banco de Espana -- essentially to the Italian and Spanish states.

German taxpayers will begin to see through this scheme and become afraid of further losses. The end of the euro system looks like this. The periphery suffers ever deeper recessions -- failing to meet targets set by the troika -- and their public debt burdens will become more obviously unaffordable. The euro falls significantly against other currencies, but not in a manner that makes Europe more attractive as a place for investment.

Instead, there will be recognition that the ECB has lost control of monetary policy, is being forced to create credits to finance capital flight and prop up troubled sovereigns -- and that those credits may not get repaid in full.

The world will no longer think of the euro as a safe currency; rather investors will shun bonds from the whole region, and even Germany may have trouble issuing debt at reasonable interest rates. Finally, German taxpayers will be suffering unacceptable inflation and an apparently uncontrollable looming bill to bail out their euro partners.

The simplest solution will be for Germany itself to leave the euro, forcing other nations to scramble and follow suit. Germany's guilt over past conflicts and a fear of losing the benefits from 60 years of European integration will no doubt postpone the inevitable.

But here's the problem with postponing the inevitable -- when the dam finally breaks, the consequences will be that much more devastating since the debts will be larger and the antagonism will be more intense.

A disorderly break-up of the euro area will be far more damaging to global financial markets than the crisis of In fall the decision was whether or how governments should provide a back-stop to big banks and the creditors to those banks. Now some European governments face insolvency themselves. Europe's rich capital markets and banking system, including the market for trillion dollars in outstanding euro-denominated derivative contracts, will be in turmoil and there will be large scale capital flight out of Europe into the United States and Asia.

Who can be confident that our global megabanks are truly ready to withstand the likely losses? It is almost certain that large numbers of pensioners and households will find their savings are wiped out directly or inflation erodes what they saved all their lives. The potential for political turmoil and human hardship is staggering. For the last three years Europe's politicians have promised to "do whatever it takes" to save the euro. It is now clear that this promise is beyond their capacity to keep -- because it requires steps that are unacceptable to their electorates.

No one knows for sure how long they can delay the complete collapse of the euro, perhaps months or even several more years, but we are moving steadily to an ugly end. Whenever nations fail in a crisis, the blame game starts. Some in Europe and the IMF's leadership are already covering their tracks, implying that corruption and those "Greeks not paying taxes" caused it all to fail. Despite Troika-sponsored adjustment programs, conditions continue to worsen in the periphery.

We cannot blame corrupt Greek politicians for all that. While no dissolution will be truly orderly, there are means to reduce the chaos. Many technical, legal, and financial market issues could be worked out in advance. We need plans to deal with: Some nations will soon need foreign reserves to backstop their new currencies. Most importantly, Europe needs to salvage its great achievements, including free trade and labor mobility across the continent, while extricating itself from this colossal error of a single currency.

Unfortunately for all of us, our politicians refuse to go there -- they hate to admit their mistakes and past incompetence, and in any case, the job of coordinating those seventeen discordant nations in the wind down of this currency regime is, perhaps, beyond reach. Simon Johnson is the co-author of White House Burning: This post is cross-posted from The Baseline Scenario. Read more from the Fiscal Affairs series here. Cette fermeture progressive du robinet des liquidités allemandes creusera donc davantage le gouffre de la compétitivité entre elle et les pays du Sud.

Un bloc émerge donc. Insensible à la ruine qui ravage les autres. Que les choses soient claires: Il va pourtant de soi que seuls des mécanismes de transferts de liquidités en direction de ces nations en grand péril sont susceptibles de remédier à leur perte de solvabilité tout en inversant des courbes du chômage et des revenus qui évoluent dans un sens extrêmement défavorable et bien-sûr inverse.

Le Japon, dont les ratios des dettes ramenés au P. Cette fièvre acheteuse — qui ne règle en rien les problèmes de fond — la met en outre dans une position très inconfortable car, très clairement, elle devient de facto un acteur majeur dans les enjeux fiscaux et budgétaires intra européens. Nearly all marketing research techniques commonly used today. Insommma gli Zaltman hanno evidenziato Why Don't Managers Think Deeply? Caro lettore, lo so. Se sei in libreria e stai sfogliando questo libro, ti stai chiedendo: E se invece sei arrivato a casa e lo stai sfogliando seduto in poltrona, ti stai chiedendo: Sono due domande molto simili, caro lettore, e pure molto sensate.

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Si faccia da parte, consentendo al Parlamento e al Quirinale di organizzare un governo di salvezza nazionale. Il Pdl è un esercito in rotta. Aux commandes à Londres depuisle Parti conservateur a imposé les plus importantes coupes budgétaires depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Il presidente del Consiglio lo sa e con cura schiva il lessico localistico, pigro, in cui la politica s'è accomodata come in poltrona. Nel confronto tendenziale, aggiunge il comunicato, il tasso di disoccupazione maschile sale di 2,9 punti percentuali e quello femminile di 2,5 punti. Comme nous nous endettons pour su r consommer — confortés moralement par des P. È un nostro dovere. And then the administration wonders why workers and voters in towns like Flint, Dayton, Wichita and Buffalo are having conniption fits. More spending now, paid for by more government borrowing and higher debt, would lead directly to rising interest rates and falling international confidence that would kill off the recovery not support it. Il veut simuler les phénomènes sociaux et économiques globaux.

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PORN GAY FRENCH ESCORT GIRL SAINT GERMAIN EN LAYE If they restored all those lost hours to their existing staff, they'd add enough hours to equal aboutfull-time jobs, according to calculations by Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute. Mais, sur le long terme, que ce soit la Suisse, le Japon ou l'Allemagne avant l'euro, ces pays ont tous une monnaie forte. Cohan goes on to note that "if China follows Taiwan's footsteps [in semiconductors], its aircraft industry should surpass the US's in a much shorter time". Per i nostri figli. Con la compressione del codice js puoi raggiungere una riduzione fille nue wanessinha kelly quantità di dati di 2. But there is much more we can do — much more that we must do if we are to create a new model of sustainable growth.
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The real question is how to stop this austerity train wreck, and substitute the following. No cuts before jobs are back — until unemployment is down to 5 percent.

Until then, the economy needs a boost, not a cut. Make the boost big enough. It would create fewer than 2 million jobs. To pay for this, raise taxes on the super-rich. Never before has so much income and wealth been concentrated at the very top, and taxes on the top so low. Go back to the 70 percent marginal tax we had before And include more tax brackets at the top.

And tax all sources of income at the same rate, including capital gains. Cut the budget where the real bloat is. Military spending and corporate welfare. Do you hear me, Washington? Do these four things and restore jobs and prosperity. What may be less well-recognized is the extent to which specific sectors are already changing in a consequential and permanent manner.

This is particularly true for global finance where volatility has increased, liquidity is evaporating, and the role of government is pronounced but inconsistent. This is a sector where the functioning of markets is changing, along with the outlook for institutions. The implications are relevant for both economic growth and jobs.

The recent volatility in financial markets — be it the dizzying swings in equities around the world or the fragmentation of European sovereign bonds — far exceeds what is warranted by the ongoing global re-alignments. We are also seeing the impact of a consequential shift in underlying liquidity conditions — or the oil that lubricates the flow of the credit and the related ability of savers and borrowers to find each other and interact efficiently.

Facing a range of internal and external pressures, banks seem to be limiting the amount of capital that they devote to market making. Combine this with the natural inclination of many market participants to retreat to the sidelines when volatility and uncertainty increase, and what you get is a disruptive combination of higher transaction costs, reduced trading volumes, and abrupt moves in valuations.

We are also witnessing a loss of trust in instruments that many market participants — from corporations to individual investors and institutional ones — use to manage their balance sheet risks. By withholding new credit, private creditors are forcing certain banks to de-lever — a process that is amplified by the sharp decline in bank stocks and the accompanying erosion in capital cushions.

The result of all this is a further, across-the-board shrinkage in the balance sheet of the western banking system. This is led by Europe where some institutions e. After the debacle of the global financial crisis, governments also want their banks to be better capitalized and more disciplined. And while implementation has been both far from consistent and less than fully effective, the intention is clear: Much tighter guard rails and better enforcement to preclude any repeat of the wild west experience of over-leverage, bad lending practices, and inappropriate compensation approaches.

The influence of central banks and governments are also being felt in other ways that impact the functioning and efficiency of markets. Some of the implications are visible and largely knowable while others, by their very nature, are unprecedented and therefore less predictable.

The goal has been to reduce the probability of prolonged recessions and severe financial dislocations. In doing so, central banks have gone well beyond their prudential supervisory and regulatory roles. They have become important direct participants in markets — essentially using their printing presses to buy selective securities, and doing so not on the basis of the usual commercial criteria that anchor the normal functioning of markets.

Market predictability is also being impacted by the erosion in the standing of sovereign risk in the western world. The cause is the twin problem of way too little economic growth and way too much debt. All this will translate into a very different financial landscape. The change will be most pronounced for banks.

Look for western banks to be less complex, less global, somewhat less inter-connected and, therefore, less systemic. With some banks teetering on the edge, certain European governments e. Also, with the western banking system shrinking in scope and scale, look for new credit pipes to be built around those that are now clogged. With the aim of supporting growth and jobs, particularly in longer-term investments such as infrastructure, some of these pipes will be directed or enabled by governments.

Have no doubt, the financial landscape is rapidly evolving. Some of the changes are deliberately designed and implemented. Others are being imposed by the quickly changing reality on the ground.

The ultimate destination is a smaller and safer financial services sector. When we get there, a better balance will be struck between private gains and the common good. Banks will be in a better position to serve the real economy without exposing it to catastrophic risk and harmful abuses. The next few months will shed light on the extent to which governments and, to a lesser extent, business leaders are able to properly orchestrate the process.

The more they fall short, the less growth and fewer jobs there will be. Especially given the current political mood in Washington concerning new federal expenditures, this focus will necessarily require the Obama administration to seriously rethink its approach to trade, particularly toward China.

There are many economic imperatives behind this conclusion. At the same time, the ethical imperative for again having a robust manufacturing sector is central to our national well-being.

Yet just as the economic imperatives are often overlooked, so is the ethical imperative very often dismissed out of insensitivity or otherwise put aside in deference to our culture of greed. The proof of this conclusion is found in history, starting with the forty years leading up to the Second World War, when the percent of U. These seventy years of robust manufacturing were -- it's no coincidence -- generally robust years for the middle class as well, hallmarked by wide-scale new home construction and new car ownership, quality public school education for the nation's youth, and fair salaries with relatively little income inequality.

Beginning in the early s, however, five Presidents in a row have actively in some cases or passively in others presided over a dramatic decline in the number of workers in our manufacturing sector. Today only nine out of every hundred American workers earn their living in manufacturing. America's trade imbalance alone is now so great that, as the economist Peter Morici of the University of Maryland has calculated, the U. As Morici has written , so long as imports to the U.

Americans " must consume much more than the incomes they earn producing goods and services, otherwise the demand for what they make is inadequate to clear the shelves, inventories pile up, layoffs result, and the economy goes into recession. America alone does not. And among these nineteen countries, Germany, Japan and China most stand out for comparison with the U.

The result of all of this, as David Leonhardt of the New York Times has written , is that the German economy consistently grew faster than ours since the middle of the last decade and it recovered much more quickly from the financial crisis of In contrast with Germany's rules-based industrial policy, much has been written about how China has gained unfair trade advantages through its lack of meaningful environmental and labor standards, currency manipulation and other subsidies, highly restrictive limitations on foreign goods purchases, and demands that countries seeking to do business in China first make massive transfers to it of their intellectual property.

These actions and practices of China under its industrial policy -- albeit very often illegal -- have, nonetheless, been highly effective: China just a year ago passed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy and passed Germany to become the world's biggest exporter, and as early as , it will likely pass the U. In just the years between and , China added 11 million manufacturing jobs to its rolls, which are as many manufacturing jobs as we now have left in total in America.

Even the Obama administration, despite countless promises to the contrary during the '08 campaign, quickly fell into the "a job is a job" fallacy while at the same time it's failed to hold China responsible for its illegal trade practices. Just six months after the Inauguration, on June 19, , Larry Summers, the administration's Director of the National Economic Council, said that to make up for the millions of offshored manufacturing jobs, all we need to do as a nation is focus on exporting " computer software, movies, university degrees and management consulting and legal services.

And as for its failure to move against China, the Obama administration, despite professing to recognize the need to address unbalanced trade and rebuild U. And then the administration wonders why workers and voters in towns like Flint, Dayton, Wichita and Buffalo are having conniption fits. We suffer in the magnitude of our trade deficit, the progressiveness of our average wage, the extent of income inequality, the amount of our federal indebtedness, and the pressures put on our nation's state and municipal budgets.

Exceeded only by the responsibility to defend itself, a nation must seek to create an economic environment that give its workers employment opportunities that provide fair compensation, safe working conditions and an absence of discrimination and are compatible with their skills and capabilities.

As for safe working conditions, we should be pleased where we are generally, excepting only in coal mining. And as for non-discrimination in hiring, going all the way back to the Kennedy-Johnson era we can generally be proud of what we've accomplished as a nation, excepting only fair employment of the LGBT community. Where I would contend we are truly falling down in major way on a nation-wide level is in not better reacting to the other form of discrimination plaguing the American workforce, which is the decades-long elimination of millions of manufacturing jobs that would better meet the skills and capabilities of workers who have instead been shoved into low-skill, low-reward service jobs.

When the last light in the plant was shut off, which is literally how the film ended, thousands of highly-skilled manufacturing jobs were eliminated -- jobs which had provided fair wages and benefits, matched well individual skills with job requirements, and instilled a sense of camaraderie throughout the community. Individual dignity and national interest align on the desire to reduce economic inequality and in matching education and skill sets to jobs.

And communities and a nation are in trouble when people feel they are being left behind. There are many proven predictors of performance in all occupations. For example, we know that the aptitude required to be successful as a professional or technical worker is much higher on average than the aptitude of the average unskilled worker. We also know that the aptitude required to be a successful skilled manufacturing worker or craftsman is much higher on average than the aptitude of the average semi-skilled or standard service worker.

While one needs to be extremely sensitive and careful when trying to correlate jobs with aptitude, three conclusions can be drawn: America's economy, social cohesion and dignity, and Americans' optimism -- in short, America's traditional strength -- all rest on a thriving middle class which in turn rests on a thriving manufacturing sector.

We have benignly and actively neglected this sector for far too long, and regardless of who wins the election, we need to focus on these manufacturing, trade and education-related issues if we want to have a healthy, vibrant, ethically sound nation moving forward. Today millions of American workers are suffering otherwise.

Tomorrow, the very idea of America will suffer. Leo Hindery , Jr. The Myths of Offshoring. The Imperative of Manufacturing. For fully two decades, the American people have been fed the canard that the offshoring of literally millions of American manufacturing jobs is an acceptable price to pay for lower cost imported consumer goods. Yet indisputably, we now know from work done by the non-partisan Center for Economic and Policy Research and others, especially including Lori Wallach and Michael Mandel, that for the vast majority of Americans, the gains in lower prices from trade are being outweighed by wage losses - meaning net losses for most American workers.

We also know from ongoing work by Mandel that shifting production overseas has inflicted far worse damage on the U. Because of persistent flaws in the data fed us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the growth of domestic manufacturing is substantially overstated which means that productivity gains and overall economic growth have been overstated as well.

Offshoring to low-cost countries is in fact creating reported gains in GDP that don't correspond to any actual domestic production. This "phantom GDP" helps explain why U. All of this seems esoteric until you reflect on the fact that we are tearing the core out of our economy and, in my opinion, the very heart and soul out of society as those in big business and their supporters in Congress try to justify. The insidiousness of offshoring is three-fold.

Yet the recent pronouncements from the administration about revitalizing American manufacturing fail to address them. First , from its high point in the summer of , employment in manufacturing has fallen from And as a percent of GDP, manufacturing is now just Today's meager GDP figure is down dramatically from And without such targets in place, the U.

Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable -- Mr. Obama's new "BFFs" -- and others take the position that because the number of manufacturing workers in the U. After all, we've seen General Electric bring back to the U. Second , offshoring is always described by its proponents as nothing more than moving jobs to 'lower-cost' countries, in our case most obviously to China. Yet, the administration has to date specifically excluded trade reform from its 'boosting manufacturing' initiatives.

Third , we have finally come to appreciate that American corporations committed to offshoring have almost universally been providing their foreign suppliers and overseas subsidiaries with massive amounts of business knowledge, management practices, training and other intangible exports. Almost none of this activity is picked up in the BLS's shoddy and, I would argue, irresponsible data gathering, but it is the proverbial second shoe to drop. And a very big shoe it is.

Cohan goes on to note that "if China follows Taiwan's footsteps [in semiconductors], its aircraft industry should surpass the US's in a much shorter time".

President Obama, according to the New York Times , has started making the case that the United States has moved past economic crisis mode and is entering "a new phase of our recovery," which demands an emphasis on job creation.

The specific vehicle that Mr. All of this is consistent with the President's expressed 'transition' from economic recovery to job creation. First , its mandate has to unequivocally include trade reform, because job creation and trade reform -- especially our trade with China -- are inextricably linked. In this regard, Mr. Obama has made a curious choice to be chair of this new Council, as few multinational corporations have benefited more from our current flawed definition of globalization -- or from China's unfair trade practices -- than has Mr.

The Obama administration's track record on avoiding conflicts of interest in economic policy areas already has been called into question by the President's choice of James McNerney of the Boeing Company to head his Export Council. Boeing, like GE, is completely joined at China's economic hip, while planning every day to ship ever more U. Yet in his January 21st guest column in the Washington Post Mr. Immelt made clear his support of the recently concluded South Korea FTA, an FTA which indisputably failed to put the interests of American workers ahead of the interests of large global corporations, which has to be the primary standard for any FTA.

Third , the Council on Jobs and Competiveness must, as its name implies, take the strongest possible exception to further unwarranted offshoring of American jobs. Yet GE's own history on this issue is checkered at best, especially in its dealings with China.

Also, its ongoing significant financial support of the U. Chamber of Commerce -- the 'big dog' when it comes to supporting offshoring -- is certainly not an encouraging sign of resoluteness in the future. Because the President has made job creation the focus of the next two years, let me close with some observations on what happens if as a nation we fail in this task.

In an article written last Friday by Matt Bai of the New York Times , he concluded that Mitt Romney's speech that day to the Conservative Political Action Conference which called today's job fairs and unemployment lines "President Obama's Hoovervilles" was misplaced. Specifically, said Bai, "It would be hard to construct a compelling case, based on any fair reading of political and economic history, for linking Mr. Obama's term thus far to that of the most maligned president of the last century.

However, as Rick Sloan, who is the Machinists Union's communications director, has noted, while Romney's analogy may not be exactly spot on, the results of the November 2 elections offer us a preview of the campaign if real unemployment in America is not down dramatically from today's dismal levels of Thirty percent of the turnout last November came from jobless households, and nationally this vote split only 50 to 46 for Democrats, which, Mr.

Bai, is not exactly an FDR-style landslide a la The world of hurt that the millions of jobless in America have endured will not be easily forgotten, especially if the most recent solution put forward on their behalf -- i.

Isn't a 'jobless recovery' as preposterous as a fetus-less pregnancy? We've got a bloody pile-up at the intersection of Wall Street and Main Street, where reality collides with such corporate conceits. And it's the workers who wind up on life support, while the suits speed away from the wreckage undented and undaunted.

Back to the bat cave, to plot the next leveraged buyout! The Stella D'Oro Strike , premiering on HBO2 tonight at 8pm, tells the story of a beloved Bronx bakery, founded by Italian immigrants in , that now lies shuttered, like so many factories all over America.

The saga of how the company went from a thriving family-owned enterprise to a gutted equity fund acquisition is a success story only if you're rooting for our modern day robber barons. For the dwindling middle class and the unwashed masses, it's an American tragedy that's being repeated all over the country.

No Contract No Cookies puts a poignant face -- or faces, to be precise -- on the massacre of manufacturing jobs that CEOs routinely commit in the name of prosperity. At the Stella D'Oro factory, folks from 22 different countries worked convivially alongside New York natives and gained a foothold in the American middle class, only to be kicked off the ladder when Brynwood Partners, a private equity fund, bought the company.

Brynwood claimed, as the New York Times' Jennifer 8. Filmmakers Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill documented the month strike that ensued, capturing the camaraderie of the close-knit workers who hailed from wildly different backgrounds but shared the belief that their solid work ethic would lay the foundation for a decent future for themselves and their families, as it would have in the past. But with our economy now founded on fictitious, bubble-based fortunes and sleazy sleights of hand, those who actually make -- or in this case, bake -- anything, are expected to accept stagnating or even declining wages even while the affluent few do better than ever.

Middle class workers who banked on promised pensions and health care are now portrayed as pariahs and parasites , while the fraudsters who crashed our economy continue to call all the shots, as Frank Rich laments in his scathing New York debut. Brynwood refused to provide the union with financial statements to document its claims that the cuts were needed, and was found guilty of bargaining in bad faith.

A federal judge ruled that the workers were entitled to their jobs, their pay, and their benefits, and ordered Brynwood to reinstate the workers. So, the company invited the workers back and promptly announced that it would close the factory.

Stella D'Oro was sold to a company named Lance, which shut the factory and moved operations to a non-union factory in Ohio where labor's a lot cheaper. Most of the former Stella D'Oro workers remain unemployed; some found a job at another bakery, only to be laid off again a few months later. When will we stop lionizing business and demonizing labor?

GOP hopefuls like Mitt Romney and Herman Cain tout their supposed business acumen as proof that they've got the right stuff to steer our economy out of the ditch. But, honestly, if you've built your financial empire by buying up companies and then driving the workers who are the backbone of those companies right into that ditch, i. And a country where business owners can't figure out how to compensate themselves and their shareholders without screwing their workers is, simply, a country that doesn't work.

Follow Kerry Trueman on Twitter: America's 14 million unemployed aren't competing just with each other. They must also contend with 8. When consumer demand picks up, companies will likely boost the hours of their part-timers before they add jobs, economists say. It means they have room to expand without hiring. And the unemployed will face another source of competition once the economy improves: Once they start looking again, they'll be classified as unemployed. And the unemployment rate could rise.

Intensified competition for jobs means unemployment could exceed its historic norm of 5 percent to 6 percent for several more years. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate to exceed 8 percent until The White House predicts it will average 9 percent next year, when President Barack Obama runs for re-election. The jobs crisis has led Obama to schedule a major speech Thursday night to propose steps to stimulate hiring. Republican presidential candidates will likely confront the issue in a debate the night before.

The back-to-back events will come days after the government said employers added zero net jobs in August. The monthly jobs report, arriving three days before Labor Day, was the weakest since September Combined, the 14 million officially unemployed; the "underemployed" part-timers who want full-time work; and "discouraged" people who have stopped looking make up The Labor Department compiles the figure to assess how many people want full-time work and can't find it — a number the unemployment rate alone doesn't capture.

In a healthy economy, this broader measure of unemployment stays below 10 percent. Since the Great Recession officially ended more than two years ago, the rate has been 15 percent or more. The proportion of the work force made up of the frustrated part-timers has risen faster than unemployment has since the recession began in December That's because many companies slashed workers' hours after the recession hit. If they restored all those lost hours to their existing staff, they'd add enough hours to equal about , full-time jobs, according to calculations by Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

No one expects every company to delay hiring until every part-timer is working full time. But economists expect job growth to stay weak for two or three more years in part because of how many frustrated part-timers want to work full time. And because employers are still reluctant to increase hours for part-timers, "hiring is really a long way off," says Christine Riordan, a policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

In August, employees of private companies worked fewer hours than in July. Some groups are disproportionately represented among the broader category of unemployment that includes underemployed and discouraged workers. More than 26 percent of African Americans, for example, and nearly 22 percent of Hispanics are in this category. The figure for whites is less than 15 percent. Women are more likely than men to be in this group. Among the Americans frustrated with part-time work is Ryan McGrath, In October, he returned from managing a hotel project in Uruguay.

He's been unable to find full-time work. So he's been freelancing as a website designer for small businesses in the Chicago area.

Parte II Inadeguatezza della struttura pubblica. Lo slogan Stato leggero che auspica un futuro tutto privato, gestito dal mercato, è la conseguenza di una logica sorpassata, perché in futuro ci attenderà uno Stato pesante a cui farà capo il ruolo principale e strategico della struttura produttiva.

Analogamente si dovrà procedere per strutture urbanistiche, ferrovie, aeroporti, ricerca, ecc. A riprova possiamo ricordare che là dove esiste, per motivi storici come in Germania, un migliore livello di gestione pubblica abbiamo i migliori risultati economici del panorama internazionale forse più significativi anche di quelli cinesi e lo scarso indebitamento del paese si spiega come conseguenza della maggiore efficienza pubblica.

In altri settori, più semplici e più collaudati, gli Stati nazionali hanno messo in atto contromisure , per esempio per contrastare la mancanza di vincoli produttivi propri di zone esterne al loro territorio: Diventa emblematico il fallimento truffaldino di Madoff , uno dei grandi finanzieri americani, che per molti anni ha distribuito come interesse il capitale dei fondi raccolti dagli ignari risparmiatori.

La crisi ha rivelato la scomparsa del capitale e la vanificazione dei risparmi. Non siamo in presenza di una previsione errata che produce il fallimento meccanismo selettivo del capitalismo , ma della mancanza di regole e di controllo che legittima l'abuso.

Le stime quantitative del fenomeno, data la nebulosità del settore, sono approssimate e devono essere prese solo come ordine di grandezza: Ora nuove valutazioni segnalano che i valori finanziari sono risaliti a 4 volte il Pil mondiale.

In questa situazione gli assurdi stipendi dei banchieri sono solo una conseguenza; se per mancanza di regole accettiamo che moneta falsa venga messa in circolazione non meravigliamoci che i manager pretendano per sé qualche briciola di questo fiume di denaro. Emblematico il fallimento truffaldino di Murdoch , uno dei grandi finanzieri americani, che per molti anni ha distribuito come interesse il capitale dei fondi raccolti dagli ignari risparmiatori.

Pubblichiamo di seguito il secondo di tre interventi di Bruno Musso, armatore e presidente del Gruppo Grendi, sull'attuale crisi economica. Laureato in Economia e Commercio e specializzatosi presso la London School of Economics, è al vertice dell'azienda familiare fondata a Genova nel Con il Gruppo Grendi costruisce nel la prima nave full container italiana e segue in prima persona l'evolversi della portualità nel capoluogo ligure.

Collabora con l'Istituto SiTI per l'elaborazione di un progetto alternativo di sviluppo portuale genovese. Musso è autore di vari articoli e saggi su problemi politico-sociali e del libro Il Porto di Genova - La storia, i privilegi, la politica Celid, Simon Johnson and Peter Boone.

To understand why, first strip away your illusions. Europe's crisis to date is a series of supposedly "decisive" turning points that each turned out to be just another step down a steep hill. Greece's upcoming election on June 17 is another such moment. While the so-called "pro-bailout" forces may prevail in terms of parliamentary seats, some form of new currency will soon flood the streets of Athens.

It is already nearly impossible to save Greek membership in the euro area: In apparent frustration, the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, remarked last week, "As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time.

Lagarde's empathy is wearing thin and this is unfortunate -- particularly as the Greek failure mostly demonstrates how wrong a single currency is for Europe.

The Greek backlash reflects the enormous pain and difficulty that comes with trying to arrange "internal devaluations" a euphemism for big wage and spending cuts in order to restore competitiveness and repay an excessive debt level.

Faced with five years of recession, more than 20 percent unemployment, further cuts to come, and a stream of failed promises from politicians inside and outside the country, a political backlash seems only natural.

With IMF leaders, EC officials, and financial journalists floating the idea of a "Greek exit" from the euro, who can now invest in or sign long-term contracts in Greece?

Greece's economy can only get worse. Some European politicians are now telling us that an orderly exit for Greece is feasible under current conditions, and Greece will be the only nation that leaves. Greece's exit is simply another step in a chain of events that leads towards a chaotic dissolution of the euro zone.

During the next stage of the crisis, Europe's electorate will be rudely awakened to the large financial risks which have been foisted upon them in failed attempts to keep the single currency alive. When Greece quits the euro, its government will default on approximately billion euros of debt to official creditors, and about 27 billion euros owed to the IMF. More importantly and less known to German taxpayers, Greece will also default on billion euros directly owed to the euro system comprised of the ECB and the 17 national central banks in the euro zone.

This includes billion euros provided automatically to Greece through the Target2 payments system -- which handles settlements between central banks for countries using the euro. As depositors and lenders flee Greek banks, someone needs to finance that capital flight, otherwise Greek banks would fail. This role is taken on by other euro area central banks, which have quietly lent large funds, with the balances reported in the Target2 account.

The vast bulk of this lending is, in practice, done by the Bundesbank since capital flight mostly goes to Germany, although all members of the euro system share the losses if there are defaults. The ECB has always vehemently denied that it has taken an excessive amount of risk despite its increasingly relaxed lending policies.

But between Target2 and direct bond purchases alone, the euro system claims on troubled periphery countries are now approximately 1. This amounts to over percent of the broadly defined capital of the euro system. No responsible bank would claim these sums are minor risks to its capital or to taxpayers. These claims also amount to 43 percent of German Gross Domestic Product, which is now around 2.

With Greece proving that all this financing is deeply risky, the euro system will appear far more fragile and dangerous to taxpayers and investors. Jacek Rostowski, the Polish Finance Minister, recently warned that the calamity of a Greek default is likely to result in a flight from banks and sovereign debt across the periphery, and that -- to avoid a greater calamity -- all remaining member nations need to be provided with unlimited funding for at least 18 months.

Rostowski expresses concern, however, that the ECB is not prepared to provide such a firewall, and no other entity has the capacity, legitimacy, or will to do so. Once it dawns on people that the ECB already has a large amount of credit risk on its books, it seems very unlikely that the ECB would start providing limitless funds to all other governments that face pressure from the bond market.

The Greek trajectory of austerity-backlash-default is likely to be repeated elsewhere -- so why would the Germans want the ECB to double- or quadruple-down by suddenly ratcheting up loans to everyone else? The most likely scenario is that the ECB will reluctantly and haltingly provide funds to other nations -- an on-again, off-again pattern of support -- and that simply won't be enough to stabilize the situation.

Having seen the destruction of a Greek exit, and knowing that both the ECB and German taxpayers will not tolerate unlimited additional losses, investors and depositors will respond by fleeing banks in other peripheral countries and holding off on investment and spending. Capital flight could last for months, leaving banks in the periphery short of liquidity and forcing them to contract credit -- pushing their economies into deeper recessions and their voters towards anger.

Even as the ECB refuses to provide large amounts of visible funding, the automatic mechanics of Europe's payment system will mean the capital flight from Spain and Italy to German banks is transformed into larger and larger de facto loans by the Bundesbank to Banca d'Italia and Banco de Espana -- essentially to the Italian and Spanish states. German taxpayers will begin to see through this scheme and become afraid of further losses.

The end of the euro system looks like this. The periphery suffers ever deeper recessions -- failing to meet targets set by the troika -- and their public debt burdens will become more obviously unaffordable. The euro falls significantly against other currencies, but not in a manner that makes Europe more attractive as a place for investment. Instead, there will be recognition that the ECB has lost control of monetary policy, is being forced to create credits to finance capital flight and prop up troubled sovereigns -- and that those credits may not get repaid in full.

The world will no longer think of the euro as a safe currency; rather investors will shun bonds from the whole region, and even Germany may have trouble issuing debt at reasonable interest rates. Finally, German taxpayers will be suffering unacceptable inflation and an apparently uncontrollable looming bill to bail out their euro partners. The simplest solution will be for Germany itself to leave the euro, forcing other nations to scramble and follow suit.

Germany's guilt over past conflicts and a fear of losing the benefits from 60 years of European integration will no doubt postpone the inevitable. But here's the problem with postponing the inevitable -- when the dam finally breaks, the consequences will be that much more devastating since the debts will be larger and the antagonism will be more intense.

A disorderly break-up of the euro area will be far more damaging to global financial markets than the crisis of In fall the decision was whether or how governments should provide a back-stop to big banks and the creditors to those banks. Now some European governments face insolvency themselves. Europe's rich capital markets and banking system, including the market for trillion dollars in outstanding euro-denominated derivative contracts, will be in turmoil and there will be large scale capital flight out of Europe into the United States and Asia.

Who can be confident that our global megabanks are truly ready to withstand the likely losses? It is almost certain that large numbers of pensioners and households will find their savings are wiped out directly or inflation erodes what they saved all their lives. The potential for political turmoil and human hardship is staggering. For the last three years Europe's politicians have promised to "do whatever it takes" to save the euro.

It is now clear that this promise is beyond their capacity to keep -- because it requires steps that are unacceptable to their electorates. No one knows for sure how long they can delay the complete collapse of the euro, perhaps months or even several more years, but we are moving steadily to an ugly end.

Whenever nations fail in a crisis, the blame game starts. Some in Europe and the IMF's leadership are already covering their tracks, implying that corruption and those "Greeks not paying taxes" caused it all to fail.

Despite Troika-sponsored adjustment programs, conditions continue to worsen in the periphery. We cannot blame corrupt Greek politicians for all that. While no dissolution will be truly orderly, there are means to reduce the chaos. Many technical, legal, and financial market issues could be worked out in advance. We need plans to deal with: Some nations will soon need foreign reserves to backstop their new currencies.

Most importantly, Europe needs to salvage its great achievements, including free trade and labor mobility across the continent, while extricating itself from this colossal error of a single currency. Unfortunately for all of us, our politicians refuse to go there -- they hate to admit their mistakes and past incompetence, and in any case, the job of coordinating those seventeen discordant nations in the wind down of this currency regime is, perhaps, beyond reach.

Simon Johnson is the co-author of White House Burning: This post is cross-posted from The Baseline Scenario. Read more from the Fiscal Affairs series here. Cette fermeture progressive du robinet des liquidités allemandes creusera donc davantage le gouffre de la compétitivité entre elle et les pays du Sud. Un bloc émerge donc. Insensible à la ruine qui ravage les autres. Que les choses soient claires: Il va pourtant de soi que seuls des mécanismes de transferts de liquidités en direction de ces nations en grand péril sont susceptibles de remédier à leur perte de solvabilité tout en inversant des courbes du chômage et des revenus qui évoluent dans un sens extrêmement défavorable et bien-sûr inverse.

Le Japon, dont les ratios des dettes ramenés au P. Cette fièvre acheteuse — qui ne règle en rien les problèmes de fond — la met en outre dans une position très inconfortable car, très clairement, elle devient de facto un acteur majeur dans les enjeux fiscaux et budgétaires intra européens. Nearly all marketing research techniques commonly used today. Insommma gli Zaltman hanno evidenziato Why Don't Managers Think Deeply? Caro lettore, lo so. Se sei in libreria e stai sfogliando questo libro, ti stai chiedendo: E se invece sei arrivato a casa e lo stai sfogliando seduto in poltrona, ti stai chiedendo: Sono due domande molto simili, caro lettore, e pure molto sensate.

Non so se sia possibile trovare risposte altrettanto sensate. E la domanda è questa: Secondo loro è un male. Io sono convinto del contrario: Di chi da anni pensa solo a difendere i suoi privilegi o di chi quei privilegi ha cominciato a denunciarli? È pericoloso, come dice qualcuno, alimentare le campagne contro le caste e le sanguisughe?

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E so, ho ben chiaro, da dove viene la mia certezza. L'Allemagne, poids lourd de la zone euro, refuse toujours d'augmenter le fonds de secours alors que les besoins grandissants de liquidités sont évidents. Berlusconi avrebbe dovuto mettere tecnicamente il suo governo al servizio del Parlamento per questa operazione straordinaria. Soirée mondaine par Jean-Claude Fissoun. It means they have room to expand without hiring.

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